Just the Facts
A way to engage with tough climate change news.
The bad news comes at us in waves.
The pandemic persists. The Russia-Ukraine war horrifies. Shootings multiply in shopping centers, schools, and subways. Inflation drives up our cost of living. Stock prices are down. Cultural issues and politics divide us, while social media stokes anxiety. The pall of depression covers many. It all feels overwhelming.
One bright spot is that many of the issues we face today are ephemeral. The news is challenging, but actual outcomes have low probability of ongoing effect and could recede soon: the pandemic will end; markets should stabilize; new equilibriums can emerge. Today’s headlines are meme’able and feel urgent, but I would argue that the urgency is often a construct of media desire for clicks and the way we consume news in bite-sized, momentary bursts. We see more and more advice about stepping back from the daily grind of social feeds, and reconnecting with personal values, friends, family, and spirituality. There is indeed a need for perspective and forbearance, and perhaps a new approach to how we determine relevance.
What has troubled me, though, is that the true importance of one issue—global climate change—continues to be drowned in the cacophony of our daily feeds. Unlike social media trending items, global warming requires us to actually engage more deeply due to its long term impact and potential existential effect. Climate change news has made headlines for brief bursts in the last year: first, with the heat waves experienced in the Americas in Summer 2021; then, last August with the most recent IPCC AR6 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 6th Assessment Report) from its Working Group I; followed by November’s COP26 (the UN sponsored ‘Conference of the Parties’ climate summit) in Glasgow; and most recently in February and March of this year with IPCC AR6 Working Groups II and III publications. Each of these news events in themselves provided evidence of long-term, future catastrophe, yet each was superseded by the immediacy of other news events: the Afghanistan withdrawal; the Covid omicron variant; the Russian invasion of Ukraine; and the recent cost inflation news.
I thought it might be a useful exercise to provide a disintermediated summary of what the current projection of climate change impacts will be. My goal is to avoid sharing my point of view—no bite-size headlines or added interpretation from me.
Below you will find a list of quotes from the IPCC AR6 reports from Working Groups I and II. The IPCC reports are scientifically-based, peer-reviewed, multi-country aligned statements of what our climate future holds. They include assessments of probability and explore a range of potential warming scenarios. I have not included every finding from the two reports, but have tried to provide quotes from each of its sections for as complete a view as possible. My two selection biases were to focus on items more relevant to North America and to choose statements that were more declarative and had a bit less jargon.
I find the writing in the IPCC reports effective in its direct prose and appropriately turgid diction. There are no verbal curlicues or obfuscations. What comes across is fact piled upon fact regarding the desperate climate situation in which we find ourselves. I share these quotes as a way to clarify our situation, to put some meat on the bone and to get more robust in our thinking. The way to combat angst is not through avoidance, but through deeper understanding of what’s truly critical in a quest for truth.
IPCC AR6, Working Group I and II Quotes:
It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred.
[Note: “cryosphere” = those parts of the earth, land or sea, that are covered with frozen water.]
Each of the last four decades has been successively warmer than any decade that preceded it since 1850
Global surface temperature was 1.09 [0.95 to 1.20] °C higher in 2011– 2020 than 1850–1900, with larger increases over land (1.59 [1.34 to 1.83] °C) than over the ocean (0.88 [0.68 to 1.01] °C)
[Note: 1.09 degrees Centigrade = 1.96 degrees Fahrenheit]
It is very likely that well-mixed GHGs were the main driver of tropospheric warming since 1979
[Note: “GHG”=Greenhouse Gases, primarily carbon dioxide and methane. “Troposphere” = lowest region of the atmosphere, from ground level up 4–6 miles]
Human influence is very likely the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s and the decrease in Arctic sea ice area between 1979–1988 and 2010–2019 (about 40% in September and about 10% in March)
It is virtually certain that human-caused CO2 emissions are the main driver of current global acidification of the surface open ocean
Global mean sea level increased by 0.20 [0.15 to 0.25] m between 1901 and 2018
The scale of recent changes across the climate system as a whole and the present state of many aspects of the climate system are unprecedented over many centuries to many thousands of years
In 2019, atmospheric CO2 concentrations were higher than at any time in at least 2 million years (high confidence)
[Note: “confidence” indicated in the report is an assessment of confidence in the statement by the panel — 90% for “very high confidence,” 80% for “high.” I’ve avoided medium or low confidence quotes in this list.]
Global surface temperature has increased faster since 1970 than in any other 50-year period over at least the last 2000 years (high confidence)
Global mean sea level has risen faster since 1900 than over any preceding century in at least the last 3000 years (high confidence)
Human-induced climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe. Evidence of observed changes in extremes such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts, and tropical cyclones, and, in particular, their attribution to human influence, has strengthened since AR5
[Note: “AR5” = the IPCC Assessment Report 5, 2014]
It is virtually certain that hot extremes (including heatwaves) have become more frequent and more intense across most land regions since the 1950s, while cold extremes (including cold waves) have become less frequent and less severe, with high confidence that human-induced climate change is the main driver of these changes. Some recent hot extremes observed over the past decade would have been extremely unlikely to occur without human influence on the climate system
The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events have increased since the 1950s over most land area for which observational data are sufficient for trend analysis (high confidence)
Event attribution studies and physical understanding indicate that human-induced climate change increases heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (high confidence)
The rate of ice sheet loss increased by a factor of four between 1992–1999 and 2010–2019. Together, ice sheet and glacier mass loss were the dominant contributors to global mean sea level rise during 2006–2018. (high confidence)
Global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least the mid-century under all emissions scenarios considered
Compared to 1850–1900, global surface temperature averaged over 2081–2100 is very likely to be higher by 1.0°C to 1.8°C under the very low GHG emissions scenario considered (SSP1–1.9), by 2.1°C to 3.5°C in the intermediate scenario (SSP2–4.5) and by 3.3°C to 5.7°C under the very high GHG emissions scenario (SSP5–8.5)
[Note: “SSP” refers to scenarios for socio-economic development with lower SSP scenarios implying a shared approach to solving energy/climate issues, with broader progress addressing climate change, and higher SSP scenarios referring to more divisive approaches among countries and socio-economic groups, with less progress.]
…every additional 0.5°C of global warming causes clearly discernible increases in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes, including heatwaves (very likely), and heavy precipitation (high confidence), as well as agricultural and ecological droughts in some regions (high confidence)
There will be an increasing occurrence of some extreme events unprecedented in the observational record with additional global warming, even at 1.5°C of global warming
A warmer climate will intensify very wet and very dry weather and climate events and seasons, with implications for flooding or drought (high confidence)
Many changes due to past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to millennia, especially changes in the ocean, ice sheets and global sea level
It is virtually certain that global mean sea level will continue to rise over the 21st century. Relative to 1995–2014, the likely global mean sea level rise by 2100 is 0.28–0.55 m under the very low GHG emissions scenario (SSP1–1.9), 0.32–0.62 m under the low GHG emissions scenario (SSP1–2.6), 0.44–0.76 m under the intermediate GHG emissions scenario (SSP2–4.5), and 0.63–1.01 m under the very high GHG emissions scenario (SSP5–8.5)
In the longer term, sea level is committed to rise for centuries to millennia due to continuing deep ocean warming and ice sheet melt, and will remain elevated for thousands of years (high confidence)
Based on paleoclimate and historical evidence, it is likely that at least one large explosive volcanic eruption would occur during the 21st century. Such an eruption would reduce global surface temperature and precipitation, especially over land, for one to three years
At 2°C global warming and above, the level of confidence in and the magnitude of the change in droughts and heavy and mean precipitation increase compared to those at 1.5°C. Heavy precipitation and associated flooding events are projected to become more intense and frequent in the Pacific Islands and across many regions of North America and Europe (medium to high confidence)
It is very likely to virtually certain that regional mean relative sea level rise will continue throughout the 21st century, except in a few regions with substantial geologic land uplift rates
Due to relative sea level rise, extreme sea level events that occurred once per century in the recent past are projected to occur at least annually at more than half of all tide gauge locations by 2100 (high confidence)
Relative sea level rise contributes to increases in the frequency and severity of coastal flooding in low-lying areas and to coastal erosion along most sandy coasts (high confidence)
Cities intensify human-induced warming locally, and further urbanization together with more frequent hot extremes will increase the severity of heatwaves (very high confidence)
In coastal cities, the combination of more frequent extreme sea level events (due to sea level rise and storm surge) and extreme rainfall/riverflow events will make flooding more probable (high confidence)
Many regions are projected to experience an increase in the probability of compound events with higher global warming (high confidence). In particular, concurrent heatwaves and droughts are likely to become more frequent
Abrupt responses and tipping points of the climate system, such as strongly increased Antarctic ice sheet melt and forest dieback, cannot be ruled out (high confidence)
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is very likely to weaken over the 21st century for all emission scenarios
[Note: “Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation” = the Gulf Stream]
From a physical science perspective, limiting human-induced global warming to a specific level requires limiting cumulative CO2 emissions, reaching at least net zero CO2 emissions, along with strong reductions in other greenhouse gas emissions
This Report reaffirms with high confidence the AR5 finding that there is a near-linear relationship between cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the global warming they cause. Each 1000 GtCO2 of cumulative CO2 emissions is assessed to likely cause a 0.27°C to 0.63°C increase in global surface temperature with a best estimate of 0.45°C4
[Note: “Anthropogenic” = originating from human activity. “GtCO2” = gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. A gigatonne is 2.2 trillion pounds.]
Anthropogenic CO2 removal (CDR) has the potential to remove CO2 from the atmosphere and durably store it in reservoirs (high confidence)
[Note: “CDR” = carbon dioxide removal]
Achieving global net zero CO2 emissions is a requirement for stabilizing CO2-induced global surface temperature increase, with anthropogenic CO2 emissions balanced by anthropogenic removals of CO2
Considering all five illustrative scenarios assessed by WGI, there is at least a greater than 50% likelihood that global warming will reach or exceed 1.5°C in the near‐term, even for the very low greenhouse gas emissions scenario
Widespread, pervasive impacts to ecosystems, people, settlements, and infrastructure have resulted from observed increases in the frequency and intensity of climate and weather extremes, including hot extremes on land and in the ocean, heavy precipitation events, drought and fire weather (high confidence)
Climate change has caused substantial damages, and increasingly irreversible losses, in terrestrial, freshwater and coastal and open ocean marine ecosystems (high confidence)
Approximately half of the species assessed globally have shifted polewards or, on land, also to higher elevations (very high confidence)
Increasing weather and climate extreme events have exposed millions of people to acute food insecurity and reduced water security, with the largest impacts observed in many locations and/or communities in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, Small Islands and the Arctic (high confidence)
Climate change has adversely affected physical health of people globally (very high confidence) and mental health of people in the assessed regions (very high confidence)
In all regions extreme heat events have resulted in human mortality and morbidity (very high confidence). The occurrence of climate-related food-borne and water-borne diseases has increased (very high confidence). The incidence of vector-borne diseases has increased from range expansion and/or increased reproduction of disease vectors (high confidence)
Approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change (high confidence)
Since AR5 there is increasing evidence that degradation and destruction of ecosystems by humans increases the vulnerability of people (high confidence)
Unsustainable land-use and land cover change, unsustainable use of natural resources, deforestation, loss of biodiversity, pollution, and their interactions, adversely affect the capacities of ecosystems, societies, communities and individuals to adapt to climate change (high confidence)
Global warming, reaching 1.5°C in the near-term, would cause unavoidable increases in multiple climate hazards and present multiple risks to ecosystems and humans (very high confidence)
Climate change and related extreme events will significantly increase ill health and premature deaths from the near- to long-term (high confidence). Globally, population exposure to heatwaves will continue to increase with additional warming, with strong geographical differences in heat-related mortality without additional adaptation (very high confidence)
Globally, population change in low-lying cities and settlements will lead to approximately a billion people projected to be at risk from coastal-specific climate hazards in the mid-term under all scenarios
Projected estimates of global aggregate net economic damages generally increase non-linearly with global warming levels (high confidence)
Concurrent and repeated climate hazards occur in all regions, increasing impacts and risks to health, ecosystems, infrastructure, livelihoods and food (high confidence). Multiple risks interact, generating new sources of vulnerability to climate hazards, and compounding overall risk (high confidence). Increasing concurrence of heat and drought events are causing crop production losses and tree mortality (high confidence)
Risks to health and food production will be made more severe from the interaction of sudden food production losses from heat and drought, exacerbated by heat-induced labour productivity losses (high confidence)
Near-term actions that limit global warming to close to 1.5°C would substantially reduce projected losses and damages related to climate change in human systems and ecosystems, compared to higher warming levels, but cannot eliminate them all (very high confidence)
Climate change impacts and risks are becoming increasingly complex and more difficult to manage. Multiple climate hazards will occur simultaneously, and multiple climatic and non-climatic risks will interact, resulting in compounding overall risk and risks cascading across sectors and regions
Weather and climate extremes are causing economic and societal impacts across national boundaries through supply-chains, markets, and natural resource flows, with increasing transboundary risks projected across the water, energy and food sectors (high confidence)
Supply chains that rely on specialized commodities and key infrastructure can be disrupted by weather and climate extreme events
Solar radiation modification approaches, if they were to be implemented, introduce a widespread range of new risks to people and ecosystems, which are not well understood (high confidence). Solar radiation modification approaches have potential to offset warming and ameliorate some climate hazards, but substantial residual climate change or overcompensating change would occur at regional scales and seasonal timescales (high confidence)
[Note: “solar radiation modification” is the idea of introducing particles into our atmosphere to block solar radiation for cooling.]
Despite progress, adaptation gaps exist between current levels of adaptation and levels needed to respond to impacts and reduce climate risks (high confidence). Most observed adaptation is fragmented, small in scale, incremental, sector-specific, designed to respond to current impacts or near-term risks, and focused more on planning rather than implementation (high confidence)
The overwhelming majority of global tracked climate finance was targeted to mitigation while a small proportion was targeted to adaptation (very high confidence).
Political commitment and follow-through across all levels of government accelerate the implementation of adaptation actions (high confidence). Implementing actions can require large upfront investments of human, financial and technological resources (high confidence)
There is a rapidly narrowing window of opportunity to enable climate resilient development. Multiple climate resilient development pathways are still possible by which communities, the private sector, governments, nations and the world can pursue climate resilient development